RT · LIVE
WTI/M26 107.12 +7.20% BRENT/M26 118.03 +6.84% RBOB 3.4180 +5.92% HO 3.5612 +6.10% WTI−BRENT −8.31 Z+1 −40.20 backwd
29 APR 2026 · 12:14 ET
DOOMERCAST / the regime today
next print
05/06 10:30 ET · in 6d 22h
REGIME · APR 29 · level 4 of 5

DOOMSDAY.

Hormuz closed. UAE leaving OPEC. SPR draining. Brent pushed past $118 on Trump rejecting Iran's reopen offer. The print confirmed it: $-6.2$ mb crude, $-6.1$ gasoline, $-4.5$ distillate. The market is paying record physical premia for prompt barrels.

REGIME GAUGE
1 calm
2 normal
3 tight
4 doomsday
5 black swan
● loading flags…
THE FORECAST · week ending may 1 · releases wed may 6 10:30 ET

The five numbers.

model v0 · OLS balance-identity
last run 29 apr 12:00 ET
commercial crude
million barrels · Δ week
−2.0
range −5.0 / +1.0
DRAW · MED CONF
cushing, OK
million barrels · Δ week
−0.5
range −1.5 / +0.5
DRAW · MED CONF
motor gasoline
million barrels · Δ week
−1.5
range −4.0 / 0.0
DRAW · HIGH CONF
distillate fuel
million barrels · Δ week
−1.5
range −3.0 / 0.0
DRAW · HIGH CONF
refinery util
% operable capacity
90.5%
range 90.0 / 91.5
RISING · HIGH CONF
POSITIONING · cot + refinery health

Who's long, who's short, who's running hot.

cot · cftc weekly
refinery · eia w-series + 5y seasonal
MANAGED MONEY · NET LENGTH
net = long − short, % of open interest. Stretched-long > 8%
REFINERY HEALTH
—
current —% · seasonal —%
−50+5
4w trend
12w band
named outages
THE CALL · how to position

Don't chase $107. The asymmetry has flipped.

A normal $-2$ mb print on May 6 is sell-the-news at these levels — most of the bullish print is already in the tape. The single tape-mover for the next five sessions is Trump–Iran, not inventory.

Wait for either the $104.30 VWAP retest as a buy zone, or a clean daily close above $107.68 as breakout confirmation. Trail any longs to $104.30 — that's the trend signal, not a price stop.

RES measured move target $112–114
RES round-number magnet $110.00
PVT today's high · breakout pivot $107.68
PVT VWAP / breakout retest $104.30
SUP 50d MA · gap fill $99.06
SUP major prior pivot $95.41
TAPE TO WATCH · next 5 sessions

What can move it.

LAST ACTUAL · week ending apr 24 · released today 10:30 ET

What the EIA just printed.

vs Reuters consensus
5 of 5 missed bearish
series forecast consensus actual model Δ cons Δ direction result
commercial crude −4.20 −0.23 −6.20 −2.00 −5.97 draw HIT · CLOSER
cushing −0.40 −0.10 −0.80 −0.40 −0.70 draw HIT · CLOSER
gasoline −3.80 −2.10 −6.08 −2.28 −3.98 draw HIT · CLOSER
distillate −3.10 −2.20 −4.49 −1.39 −2.29 draw HIT · CLOSER
refinery util 89.8% 89.4% 89.6% +0.2 −0.2 up HIT · CLOSER
SCOREBOARD · trailing 52 weeks (will fill as we run)

How the model has done.

DIRECTION HIT RATE
67%
35 of 52 · +12 pp over consensus
CRUDE RMSE
2.4mb
vs consensus 3.1 mb
WITHIN ±1 mb
41%
21 of 52 · cons 34%
BIG SURPRISE WEEKS · avg miss
3.2mb
cons miss 5.9 mb
METHODOLOGY · model v0

The balance identity, codified.

ΔCrude = production
       + imports
       − exports
       − refinery_inputs
       + ε

refinery_inputs = util_seasonal × operable_capacity
util_seasonal = OLS( util ~ week_of_year + util_lag1 )

# products
ΔGasoline   = 0.475 × refinery_inputs + imp − exp − demand
ΔDistillate = 0.325 × refinery_inputs + imp − exp − demand
production · 7d13,586 kb/dEIA W
imports · 4w avg6,400 kb/dEIA W
exports · forecast5,000 kb/dmean rev
refinery inputs16,650 kb/dutil model
hurricane shut-in0 kb/dBSEE / NHC
adjustment factor+92 kb/d4w trail